Prognostic indicators of 6-month mortality in elderly people with advanced dementia: A systematic review

1. Meghan A Brown
   1. Department of Neuroscience, College of Letters, Arts, and Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
2. Elizabeth L Sampson
   1. Marie Curie Palliative Care Research Unit, University College Medical School, University College London, London, UK
3. Louise Jones
   1. Marie Curie Palliative Care Research Unit, University College Medical School, University College London, London, UK
4. Anna M Barron
   1. Department of Biophysics and Life Sciences, Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

1. Anna M Barron, Department of Biophysics and Life Sciences, Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, The University of Tokyo, 3-8-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8902, Japan. Email: barron.anna@graduate.uwa.edu.au

Abstract

Background: For end-of-life dementia patients, palliative care offers a better quality of life than continued aggressive or burdensome medical interventions. To provide the best care options to dementia sufferers, validated, reliable, sensitive, and accurate prognostic tools to identify end-of-life dementia stages are necessary. 

Aim: To identify accurate prognosticators of mortality in elderly advanced dementia patients consistently reported in the literature. 

Design: Systematic literature review.

Data sources: PubMed, Embase, and PsycINFO databases were searched up to September 2012. Reference lists of included studies were also searched. Inclusion criteria were studies measuring factors specifically related to 6-month outcome in patients diagnosed with dementia in any residential or health-care setting. 

Results: Seven studies met the inclusion criteria, five of which were set in the United States and two in Israel. Methodology and prognostic outcomes varied greatly between the studies. All but one study found that Functional Assessment Staging phase 7c, currently widely used to assess hospice admission eligibility in the United States, was not a reliable predictor of 6-month mortality. The most common prognostic variables identified related to nutrition/nourishment, or eating habits, followed by increased risk on dementia severity scales and comorbidities. 

Conclusions: Although the majority of studies agreed that the Functional Assessment Staging 7c criterion was not a reliable predictor of 6-month mortality, we found a lack of prognosticator concordance across the literature. 

Further studies are essential to identify reliable, sensitive, and specific prognosticators, which can be applied to the clinical setting and allow increased availability of palliative care to dementia patients.

• Dementia
• quality of life
• palliative care
• terminal care
• prognosis
• hospices

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